Game Changer! Report Indicates Millennial Generation Will See Smoking Deaths Drop By At Least 20%


The team set out to understand better how e-cigarettes positively and negatively affect society

Tobacco use continues to be the leading cause of preventable death and disease around the world. Even with all we now know about the dangers of smoking, far too many people still end up picking up the habit and sticking to it for life. Over the past ten years, e-cigarettes have hit the scene to give smokers another option in the fight to end their dependence, but with them have come plenty of skepticism from the public at large. In fact, polls have indicated that as few as 13% of adults understand that vaping is at least 95% safer than smoking.

Despite these poor numbers, there is a growing amount of evidence that concludes not only is vaping an invaluable harm reduction aid, but it’s also a useful smoking cessation tool as well. In line with this growing base of evidence is a study published in Nicotine and Tobacco Research that concludes the generation of people born after 1997 will likely see a 21% drop in smoking-related deaths thanks to the advent of vapes.

Vaping Impact Study

The study was led by world-renowned tobacco control expert, Dr. David Levy of the Georgetown University Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center. Dr. Levy and his team wanted to gain a better understanding of the impact e-cigarettes have on the public at large. This includes understanding how both pro and anti-vaping policies are affecting the lives of people. They believe that nailing down what leads to more smokers and what helps prevent them is one of the first steps that needs to be taken to utilize vaporizers properly. To reach their conclusions the team built statistical models that use current vaping and smoking patterns to determine the nature of transitions between several key variables.

In addition to the smoking-related deaths and life years lost calculations, the team also noted transitions between experimenting with vapes and using them full time, transitions between dual using and exclusively using vaporizers, as well as the impact of switching later in life. After collecting all the necessary data, the team was ready to make some interesting claims on the effect of vaping. Using the most in-depth figures currently available the team predicted a 21% drop in smoking-related deaths, as well as 20% more life years lived, thanks to vaping. Making these results even more telling was the fact they used conservative estimates to reach their final figures, meaning the real reduction in smoking-related deaths could be higher.

Further Research On Vaping

This isn’t the only piece of evidence that strongly indicates fears over the impact of vaping are overblown. One of the most commonly referenced reasons against the legitimation of vaping is that by acknowledging the extreme harm reduction and smoking cessation value of vaping, it will directly lead to more kids picking up smoking in the long run. A poll conducted by UK based Action on Smoking and Health asked over 60,000 students to explain their history and understanding of vaporizers. The team concluded that only between 0.1% and 0.5% of non-smoking teens will ever start vaping on a regular basis, let alone how few of those are liable to turn into full-blown smokers eventually.

If that alone wasn’t a good enough reason to support vaping, we also have plenty of evidence supporting the relative safety of vaping compared to smoking. A study published last fall in the Journal of Aerosol Science concluded that the excess lifetime cancer risk of a vaper is around 57,000 times lower than that of a smoker with a similar background. Meanwhile, researchers at the University of Louisville published findings around the same time that indicated vaping is actually the best smoking cessation tool we have at our disposal. The team tested all the most common cessation methods, from cold turkey through prescription drugs, before determining that vaping was the most likely to lead to success.


Fighting the ongoing smoking epidemic is of critical importance. Not only has smoking killed more people every year than nearly anything else, but if we aren’t careful we could pass on this awful habit to the next generation. According to the growing pile of evidence, it seems that vaping may be the key to further slowing down the smoking rate. Although many were initially worried about the long-term effects of accepting vaping, it’s becoming quite clear that what the immense good far outweighs little risk vaping poses.

More research like this is vital in truly convincing parents, and politicians that vaping is not as scary as it may appear from the outside. We now know that vaping will likely lead to a reduction in smoking-related deaths in the next generation by over 20%. This should be celebrated as a massive victory; Unfortunately, most legislators still concern themselves with placing harsh taxes or bans on the harm reduction tools instead. This simply must end if we’re ever going to live in a world free from the ever-present smoking epidemic.

Are you surprised by how much smoking-related deaths are expected to drop? What do you think is the most critical part of a successful quit attempt? How can we help improve the public perception of vaping further? Let us know what you think in the comments, and don’t forget to check back here or join our Facebook and Twitter communities for more news and articles.

Dustin has been vaping for almost a decade. He found e-cigarettes in 2008 and quickly became drawn to them as an early adopter. He's been writing reviews ever since and has established himself as a well-versed authority on the subject.

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